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AMMO SHORTAGE EXPLAINED...

landpanther1

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April 22, 2009 - 6:34 am

PLEASE CREDIT

USCCA.COM ( a concealed carry website)

EMAIL TO ME....

Some More Ruminations
on the Ammo Shortage...
by Tamara K.
of booksbikesboomsticks.blogspot.com

Die Time: In comments yesterday, Ed Foster mentioned "die time". This is exactly why you can't get, for example, .380 right now. At most manufacturers, the machinery they use to load .380 (which uses different "dies" to load different calibers) is only used for that purpose for a small portion of the year; the rest of the time it's used to load more high volume stuff, like 9mm. They churn out .380 for a couple of months, say, at the end of the year, and it's enough to hold the market over 'til the next winter.

Rumor has it that this past year's demand for 9mm FMJ was so great that Winchester didn't bother tooling up for .380 and kept the presses pumping out 9x19 ball. Even if the other two companies didn't do likewise, what percentage of the .380 market do you think that Winchester represents? Federal and Remington certainly don't load enough to take up the slack, and that causes the supply to crash to nothing.

Case Lots: Believe it or not, the kind of people that read gun blogs, post on internet gun forums, go to the range every weekend, and name their gun "Vera", are a small minority of gun owners. For fifteen years I tried to convince Joe and Jane Public to buy ammo by the case. I failed miserably. No matter how much you explain the price savings when buying a thousand rounds at a lick, or the fact that ammo doesn't go bad, most people would look at you and say "I don't know, $100 seems like a lot of money, and what am I going to do with a thousand rounds of 9mm?"

The ammunition manufacturing and supply pipeline is simply not set up for the average consumer to walk into Wal-Mart and buy two cases of ammunition. If your average shooter normally bought 100rds/month to take to the range and decided to buy two cases instead, "just in case", he has just bought more ammunition at one lick than he would normally buy in two years. Think about that for a second, and then multiply it out over several million shooters suddenly buying way outside their normal pattern.

Production Capacity: The manufacturers are running full tilt. The only way they could make more ammunition is to build more plant, and they are not going to do that for several reasons. The first is that this bubble will contract sooner or later. Joe and Jane Sofaspud are going to realize that they really don't need 10,000 rounds of Winchester .45 in the basement, and that minivan payment isn't getting any smaller. They'll sell it to Annie Appleseed and Ivan Ipsc and demand will cool down.

The second reason they won't build more plant is financial. Remember that economy thing? Yeah, well it's still bad. Business loans aren't really easy to get right now, especially for businesses that are square in the middle of the Media-Congressional Complex's crosshairs. When the stroke of a pen could cut your sales by 50%, you are not what lenders call a "good risk".

Supply & Demand: Right now prices are high not because of transport costs or raw materials costs, which drove the price spike of '05(really an honest adjustment, as ammo prices had stayed almost artificially flat for the better part of a decade,) but because of simple supply and demand. If I put my widgets out for $1, and the first guy that walks in the store buys them all, I'm obviously not charging enough for my widgets.

As demand stays high and supply stays small, prices keep going up. They will go up until they become high enough to cool demand. As demand cools, supply will build back up. In order to move the new supply, prices will come back down somewhat until they reignite demand. This is Econ 101, folks, and it's as predictable as 32 ft/sec² or π*r².

......................................

The second resource, is another write up on the matter from a slightly different perspective- written by a Revolver Smith named Grant Cunningham.

I've shared some of his work with you in the past- it's always great stuff, and I encourage you to have a look at the rest of his site after you've given this a read.

It's called "Supply Chain Management 101: on the ammunition shortage". Visit HERE to read this article.

I hope you find these articles enlightening!

Take care and stay safe,

Tim Schmidt
USCCA - Owner / Founder

photohause

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April 22, 2009 - 2:27 pm

Bunk!

B.S.!

Horse Hocky!

November 4, 2008 is why

If you're going to drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.

landpanther1

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April 22, 2009 - 3:01 pm

PLEASE DON'T MISTAKE THE "HOW COME" WITH THE "WHY"

YOU ARE RIGHT ON ABOUT THE "WHY".. 11/408....

THIS IS AN ARTICLE ABOUT THE " HOW COME",

THIS IS HOW IT, THE AMMO INDUSTRY, WORKS... NOT ABOUT "WHY" IT IS OVER BURDENED AND CAUSED TO WORK 24/7 !

WE . AS AMERICANS... GUN LOVING, BIBLE TOTING, VETERANS THAT ARE VOTING

AMERICANS.. NEED TO TAKE CARE OF THE "WHY" COME THE NEXT CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION... WE NEED TO T.C.o.B.

WE MUST BE MORE PRO-ACTIVE.. WE NEED TO START NOW... GETTING THE WORD OUT TO THOSE VOTERS THAT ARE ON THE FENCE THAT THIS HAS GOT TO STOP..NOW !!!

THIS , THE TAKING CARE OF THE "WHY"..IS ALL OUR JOBS NOW.. DON'T LET'S FORGET IT !!! DON'T LET US BECOME COMPLACENT....

WAKE UP.. AND FIGHT.. WRITE AND CALL YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS.. NOW !!!

AND KEEP CALLING.. STAY IN THEIR FACES.... THIS IS NOT GOING AWAY BY ITSELF..

WE MUST ACT AND STRONGLY.. NOW..

DO YOU WANT YOUR GUNS TAKEN AWAY ??..

DO YOU WANT TO NOT BE ALLOWED TO BUY AMMO OR RELOAD AMMO ??

THEN DO NOTHING ...NOW !!!

AND DON'T WHINE WHEN IT HAPPENS !!!

wayne

zoommb

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April 22, 2009 - 6:29 pm

Proud To Be An American

And when the NRA asks for $20.00 every month, cough it up. I'm assuming that everyone here is a member of the NRA, right....RIGHT???

OK then.

Laugh

Supermagfan

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April 22, 2009 - 6:51 pm

Zoommb, KUDOS on the NRA! There was an old poll here about membership that received mixed reviews, but I'll stand by the fact that they are the best voice we all have at the top level to lobby our rights regardless of opinions on how they utilize our funds.

SMF - Benefactor Member Proud To Be An American

A man cannot have too many SuperMags

Steve

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April 22, 2009 - 8:04 pm

Good info, the NRA is not perfect, it should also not be the only part of the solution. I've said before that when I make a major shooting purchase, I send 10% to the NRA, sort of my voluntary excise tax. 10% is a LOT less than they're going to want when they start coming after us, and they're gonna start looking for big money soon.

That 30/40/50% ammo excise tax will meet 2 of their needs, drive people out of shooting, and produce revenue.

Here it is again:

https://www.danwessonforum.com/?page_id=3/news-and-legislation/let-them-know-what-you-want

They need to be told more than once what we REQUIRE

I went to a bookstore and asked the saleswoman "Were is the Self Help Section?" She said if she told me, it would defeat the purpose.

George Carlin

photohause

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April 23, 2009 - 7:26 am

https://www.nrahq.org/nrabonus/

Free trial membership - GET ON IT GUYS!

If you're going to drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.

Jody

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April 23, 2009 - 8:08 am

I know some folks have issue with the NRA and I for one question how they spend some money but as others have stated the good they do and the national level outweighs the bad.

That was an interesting article on the ammunition market and how it works. We now need to work at changing the "Why This Happened" and not let it happen again!

Dusty Trail

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April 23, 2009 - 8:09 am

It has become VERY EASY to contact your State Reps and Senators and the same for the Federal Reps and Senators.

They all have websites and you can send 'em emails. It's as easy as posting on the DWF!

Many of the groups here in Texas publish lists of the bills coming up, so you know when you need to pay attention.

I called 15 House Reps / Comittee members yesterday (took ~20 mins) and filed an affadavit at the State Affairs Hearing at the Capital the day before. It was jammed with concerned citizens from all over Texas and the hearing went 'til 1:00 a.m.!! The Bills were relative to immigration control (for the most part) not gun rights, but it's all the same process.

It's easy to do & no big deal, but it is THE ONLY WAY you can influence policy. Sometimes it is well worth taking a day off or cruising by on your lunch hour if you're close, to attend one of these critical hearings in person.

--->BTW, our (TX Congressional District 31) Federal Representative spoke for an hour on the floor of the house and called for Janet Napolitano's resignation yesterday. The guy (TX Rep. John Carter -R) is great.

So, to throw in my support - do become involved, the last thing we need to be is a silent (and marginalized) majority.

-Dusty Trail

NRA Member / NRA ILA Member (I need to consider making it a lifetime membership...these are those kind of times.)

landpanther1

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April 23, 2009 - 11:43 am

A COUPLE OF NUMBERS EVERY ONE OF US NEEDS TO WRITE ON A

POST IT NOTE , PUT ON OUR PHONES… AND USE !!!! EVERY WEEK !!!

WHITE HOUSE

202-456-1111

202-456-1414

SENATE switchboard

877-851-6437

866-220-0044

U.S. CONGRESS switchboard

202-224-3121

IT IS BETTER TO CALL YOUR REPRESENTIVES DIRECTLY..BUT THESE NUMBERS WILL GET YOU STARTED..

TALK WITH SOMEONE IN THEIR OFFICES.. LET THEM KNOW WE ARE WATCHING WHAT THEY DO

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